‘18 Trump rallies may have led to 30k Covid cases’

A group of Stanford University economists who created a statistical model estimate that there have been at least 30,000 coronavirus infections and 700 deaths as a result of 18 campaign rallies President Trump held from June to September.
The numbers are not based on individual cases traced directly to particular campaign events. Instead, the Stanford researchers conducted a regression analysis. They compared the 18 counties where Trump held rallies with as many as 200 counties with similar demographics and similar trajectories of confirmed Covid-19 cases before the rally date. The events took place from June 20 to September 12; only the first two — in Tulsa, and Phoenix — were held indoors. The president has held about three dozen additional rallies since the study ended in September.
Based on their models, the researchers concluded that on average, the 18 events produced increases in confirmed cases of more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating that figure to the 18 rallies, they concluded that the gatherings ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and that the rallies had “likely led to more than 700 deaths.”
The paper is likely to be contentious. Public health officials in states said in interviews this week that it was impossible to tie particular outbreaks to the gatherings. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, dismissed the study as “a politically driven model based on flawed assumptions and meant to shame Trump supporters.”

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